Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Generalization

Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning

This paper studies a monetary model that is standard in all respects except that market participants have incomplete knowledge about the economic structure and employ adaptive learning rules to learn about the economic environment. Market participants also must contend with unannounced regime shifts. Simulation results suggest that the models under adaptive learning, especially constant-gain le...

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?

Using novel real-time data on a broad set of economic fundamentals for …ve major US dollar exchange rates over the recent ‡oat, we employ a predictive procedure that allows the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals to evolve over time in a very general fashion. Our key …ndings are that: (i) the well-documented weak out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models may be c...

How Well Do Monetary Fundamentals Forecast Exchange Rates?

For many years after the seminal work of the Meese and Rogoff (1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate determination were generally unable to beat even a naïve no-change model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of sophisticated econometric techniques, panel data, and long spans of d...

Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals

This paper employs a neural network (NN) to study the nonlinear predictability of exchange rates for four currencies at the 1-, 6and 12-month forecast horizons. We find that our neural network model with market fundamentals cannot beat the random walk (RW) in out-of-sample forecast accuracy, although it occasionally shows a limited market-timing ability. The neural network model without monetar...

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting